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Rasmussen has promised a more in-depth explanation coming January 23

(6/6/2025) For spells on the stack with in their mana costs, use the value chosen for X to determine the spell's mana value.

Card bans affect MTG Arena just as they do paper Magic - so the above MTG banlists apply to Arena too

Can I rely on this to close out the game or is this only a speedbump for my opponent

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Baral's deck uses support creatures like Lullmage Mentor, Archmage Emeritus, and Talrand, Sky Summoner to get additional value from so many counterspells, which puts this deck ahead slowly but surely